A burgeoning new playoff rivalry sees the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
These elite AFC franchises split their last two tightly contested postseason meetings on the way towards Super Bowl appearances.
With potential snow and single digit wind chills in the forecast, points may prove at a premium. Let's break down the key betting details and matchups shaping wager decisions in the 2024 installment of this budding NFL rivalry.
Game Background - Top AFC Contenders Collide
The AFC’s last two Super Bowl representatives meet again in the Divisional Round when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Buffalo Bills up north. Both teams enjoyed first-round byes after 12-5 regular seasons before dominating Wild Card weekend opponents.
The Bills offense found early rhythm jumping ahead 14-0 fast en route to a 31-7 home thrashing of the Miami Dolphins. Their reward comes facing the Chiefs - three-time defending AFC champions featuring Patrick Mahomes spearheading the attack.
Kansas City flexed defensive muscle stymying red-hot rookie QB Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers offense in a 19-12 win. Offseason defensive infusion now pays dividends preparing to duel Josh Allen’s top passing corps.
And with weather forecasts predicting biting cold and blustery conditions, this shapes up as an old-school slugfest pivoting on turnovers and field position for two pass-heavy offenses.
Latest Odds and Predictions - Bills Slim Home Favorites
The Bills hope their raucous home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium, where they’ve won 11 of their last 12 contests, can provide an extra edge against powerful Kansas City. Oddsmakers see things narrowly:
Game Odds
Spread: BUF -2.5
Moneyline: BUF -145 / KC +125
Over/Under Total Points: 45.5
Buffalo enjoys a slim 55% implied win probability as short -2.5 favorites over the visitors according to bookmakers. Most expect a one score game in either direction.
The lofty 45.5 point total stays grounded on projections inclement weather slows both elite passing games short of a shootout.
Chiefs Seek Rare Road Playoff Success
The Chiefs make an impressive sixth straight AFC Divisional Round appearance but achieving sustained playoff success away from Arrowhead Stadium has proven elusive for Andy Reid’s regime recently.
Kansas City shows just a 2-9 straight up record on the road in the AFC playoffs since 2018 despite four conference championship game trips and back-to-back Super Bowls capped by victory in Super Bowl LIV.
Making matters tougher, dual-threat quarterback Patrick Mahomes fights through an ankle injury limiting trademark mobility and improvisation skills. The Bills pass rush feasted on immobile Dolphins rookie Skylar Thompson last week recording seven quarterback sacks - a foreboding sign for compromised pocket passing.
Fortunately the Chiefs run game and defense both arrive in peak form ready to assist if inclement conditions require conservative ball control and field position victories.
Can Bills Solve Chiefs in Pivotal Rematch?
The Bills gained confidence defeating Kansas City soundly at home during 2021’s divisional playoffs before falling short to them on the same stage in a heartbreaking overtime loss twelve months later.
Neither franchise has missed an AFC Championship game since then either, setting the stage for a burgeoning rivalry between elite contenders and young star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
With snow and freezing rain potentially hampering downfield passing, Buffalo hopes breakout running back Devin Singletary continues finding traction near his 5-yard per carry clip the last month. Allen's cannon arm can defy elements better than most - but numbing single-digit wind chills hamper even generational talents.
On defense, Bills safety Jordan Power presents a sneaky X-factor coming off a two-interception effort in his first career playoff appearance last round. Rattling the injured Mahomes early before uncomfortable conditions fully take hold provides a crucial path to victory.
Betting Breakdown - UNDER Trends Appealing
In spite of featuring two of the NFL’s premier passing offenses, the bleak weather expected Sunday may limit both team’s upside:
- 57% of games are UNDER with assigned referee Shawn Hochuli
- The UNDER is 4-1 in Bills last 5 playoff affairs
- Kansas City’s last 6 playoff games all finished UNDER
With potential numbness affecting grip and accuracy for Mahomes and Allen, points promise to come at a premium regardless of which signal caller gets hot.
The Pick: Chiefs +2.5 and UNDER 45.5
Look for Devin Singletary and Isaiah Pacheco to log extra run game usage if flurries swirl limiting deep shots. And watch for Jordan Poyer to force pivotal turnovers in a cold slugfest hinging on field position battles.