AFC Championship Odds and Predictions
Chiefs vs Ravens betting odds favor Baltimore to win by a field goal at home.

Most odds for Chiefs vs Ravens betting favor Baltimore, but can Patrick Mahomes lead his team to an upset victory?

AFC Championship Odds and Predictions

The Ravens are currently -4 point favorites at home with an over / under total of 44.5..

 Team Moneline Odds
 Ravens -210
Chiefs +180


According to leading sportsbooks, the Ravens have a 65% chance to advance to the Super Bowl. Comparatively, the Chiefs odds sit at +450, giving them just an 18% chance to win.

Reasons to Bet the Ravens

Here's why Baltimore are heavy favorites:

super bowl mvp jackson

  • Outstanding defense, allowed fewest points (16.5 points)
  • Led NFL in sacks (60) - will pressure Mahomes
  • Best turnover differential (+12); forced 31 takeaways
  • Strong vs pass (6th) and run (18th)
  • MVP Lamar Jackson had 24-7 TD-INT ratio
  • Multiple weapons on offense
  • Converted red zone chances at league-best 68% rate

In summary, their elite defense and efficient offense makes them clear favorites, especially playing at home.

Reasons to Bet the Chiefs

Here's why Kansas City could pull off the upset:

super bowl mvp mahomes

  • Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL
  • 13-3 career playoff record as starter
  • Efficient playoffs: 238 passing yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
  • Top receiver Tyreek Hill traded, but weapons emerged
  • Travis Kelce still elite TE threat
  • New RB Isaiah Pacheco has sparked running game
  • Allow just 17.3 points per game (2nd best in NFL)
  • Chris Jones & Co can pressure Lamar Jackson

While it won't be easy, Mahomes has the talent to keep them in striking distance late. Their defensive dominance gives them an outside shot if they limit mistakes.

Player Props and Fantasy Predictions

Several player prop bets stand out for this game:

Lamar Jackson Over/Under Passing Yards: 219.5

Jackson averaged 229.9 passing yards per game this year. However, Kansas City allowed just 195 yards per game through the air in 2022, presenting a difficult matchup.

Prediction: Under 219.5 Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes Over/Under Passing Yards: 265.5

Mahomes put up 261 yards per game in the regular season. But Baltimore's elite secondary will be one of his stiffest challenges yet. Still, his ability to buy time and chuck the ball downfield gives him upset potential.

Prediction: Over 265.5 Passing Yards

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -138

Kelce led the Chiefs with 12 TD receptions on the year. He found the end zone twice last week as well, regaining his top form. Don't expect him to be held out of the end zone two weeks straight.

Prediction: Kelce Anytime TD (-138)

As for fantasy projections, here are the top scorers to expect:

 Player Position  Projected Fantasy Points
 Lamar Jackson  QB   22
 Patrick Mahomes  QB  18
 Travis Kelce  TE  14
 Mark Andrews  TE  12
 Isaiah Pacheco  RB  10


With two elite offenses and defenses facing off, this game should deliver plenty of highlights and drama. The oddsmakers and consensus predictions favor Baltimore, but Mahomes makes Kansas City dangerous.

Chiefs vs Ravens Betting Pick and Prediction

The Ravens were clearly the most complete team in the NFL this season. Their defensive dominance and efficient offense executed by MVP favorite Lamar Jackson makes them deserving favorites.

However, the Chiefs have enough elite talent in Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and others to keep them hanging around. If Kansas City can force a few rare mistakes from Jackson while avoiding giveaways of their own, an upset isn't out of the question.

But in the end, the Ravens pass rush will make enough disruptive plays on defense to get Jackson the ball back. His dual threat ability will carve up a middling Chiefs run defense en route to a win.

Final Prediction:
Ravens 27, Chiefs 21

The Ravens are the right side, but laying -3.5 points in a tightly contested championship game is risky. The Chiefs will likely put up a strong fight.

Best Bet:
Chiefs +4 points

While the Ravens should prevail, taking the points with Mahomes and the Chiefs makes more sense. Don't be surprised if this comes down to a late field goal or red zone stop.

So buckle up for what projects as a thrilling, back-and-forth game between two of the NFL's top teams.