That being said, the spread should not influence your betting picks and predictions for this matchup. Monday's match-up is highly anticipated and is expected to be one of the best regular-season games of 2023. Both teams are fresh off a bye week leading up to this showdown, which also adds to the excitement of Monday night's game.
Eagles vs Chiefs Odds Insights
- Philadelphia has gone 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 5 games.
- Kansas City has gone 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on Monday night.
- The Eagles have gone 11-2 straight up (SU) and 9-2 SU against the AFC.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Chiefs last 6 games in November.
Eagles vs Chiefs Breakdown
The Eagles possess one of the league's most formidable offenses, ranking fourth in EPA per play and fifth in Success Rate. They showcase an exceptional offensive line, a top-tier quarterback, a lethal rushing game, and a dynamic wide receiver duo led by A.J. Brown, who is currently performing at an All-Pro caliber. However, it must be acknowledged that this unit hasn't quite reached its full potential compared to the previous season. One contributing factor is Jalen Hurts' ongoing knee problem, which has hindered his effectiveness as a runner and subsequently made the offense more predictable and easier to counter.
It remains uncertain how much healthier Hurts will be on Monday night after a two-week break. If he's near or fully recovered, it would greatly benefit Philadelphia's offense. Unfortunately, the Eagles will be without tight end Dallas Goedert due to an injury, which will negatively impact their performance in the red zone. Additionally, the play-calling has regressed since offensive coordinator Shane Steichen's departure.
The Eagles offense is not performing as well as it did last season, while the Chiefs defense has shown significant improvement. Kansas City currently ranks fourth in both Success Rate and EPA per play. Although their run defense remains vulnerable, Philadelphia will likely attempt to exploit this weakness. However, Hurts may face more difficulty attacking the Chiefs secondary downfield compared to his impressive performance in the Super Bowl. To date, only the elite Cleveland defense ranks higher than Kansas City in Success Rate and EPA when defending against opposing quarterback dropbacks.
The defensive roster of Kansas City may catch you off guard with the level of success it has achieved. Chris Jones stands out as a star on the defensive line, and Trent McDuffie has emerged as one of the top cover corners in the league. McDuffie's contribution is a significant factor in Kansas City's fourth-place ranking in defending against No. 1 wide receivers.
Despite this, the Chiefs' strength lies not only in these two players and their strong linebacker performance but also in the collective effort of the entire team. Under the guidance of the consistently excellent defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs have proven that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. With Spagnuolo's expertise, the team is sure to have a well-crafted game plan against the Eagles.
Although the Kansas City defense has improved this season, the offense has not seen the same progress. Despite having the best quarterback and tight end in the league, the wide receiver group has yet to fully establish itself, resulting in the team not ranking as high in advanced metrics as they have in the past.
On the other hand, the Eagles defense has struggled after losing key players and their defensive coordinator from last year's NFC Championship team. They have weaknesses in coverage against short passes and over the middle of the field, and injuries have left them without a reliable slot corner. While they remain strong against the run, their pass rush needs to be effective in order to prevent being exploited by opposing teams.
Eagles vs Chiefs Predictions
This game is predicted to be highly competitive from start to finish. As mentioned numerous times before, the safest bet in sports is to support the best quarterback in the world when you need a victory. Taking into account both the regular season and the playoffs, Mahomes has an incredible record of 20-6-1 (76.9%) against the spread when playing as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. On average, he covers the spread by more than 4.5 points per game.
Count on the Kansas City to come out on top in this game, with Eagles vs Chiefs odds being less than a field goal. However, don't be surprised if the Eagles take a highly aggressive approach on fourth downs, even more so than usual. They may also opt for 2-point conversions, resulting in some unusual scores and making the field-goal spread less significant than usual.
Eagles vs Chiefs Picks
All that being said, we would rather bet Kansas City on the moneyline (-140) having gone 11-1 SU when playing at home. You can understand the argument for either team really, particularly taking the Eagles at +2.5 or teasing to +8.5, but betting investments in Mahomes at this price range has also been quite profitable. Regardless of which team you support, this game is bound to be an exciting watch.