The Super Bowl stands as the biggest sports betting event of the year and in 2024 it will be no different.
Beyond the game itself, hundreds of prop bets offer more ways to get action down. From coin flips to halftime shows to commercials and more - what insights can past data provide? Let's analyze key 2024 Super Bowl prop bets and trends with an eye to the future.
Calculate Rating on Prop Bets
The "exceptional rating" balances a prop's implied probability against the odds actually offered. Here is how it works:
- Determine implied odds based on % of times an outcome has occurred
- Compare to odds listed at sportsbooks
- Subtract to find "exceptional rating" value
For example:
The team scoring last has won 20 of 22 SBs (90.9%)
* Implied odds = -1000
* Sportsbook odds = -230
* Exceptional rating = 770
I use an "exceptional rating" of 500+ to flag the strongest prop plays. Now let's analyze top trends.
Top Super Bowl Prop Trends
Studying props over 22 years reveals powerful statistical advantages to exploit. Like so:
Perfect Props
22 of 22 outcomes:
- No 200+ yard receiver
- No 55+ yard FG
- No fumble touchback
- No 1st play sack or TD
- No punt return TD
Fade these props for a massive edge.
Strong Leans
95%+ probability over 22 SBs:
- No player scoring 8+ points in one drive (21 of 22)
- No overtime (21 of 22)
- Under 900 total yards (21 of 22)
- No 150+ yard receiver (21 of 22)
- No QB reception (21 of 22)
Consider Underdogs
95% probability over 22 years:
- TD scored under 3.5 yards (21 of 22)
Key Super Bowl Prop Trends
Perfect props (22 of 22): No extremes like 200+ yard receiver
Strong leans (21+ of 22): No OT, Under 900 total yards
Underdog props (21 of 22): Short TD scored under 3.5 yards
Now let's dig deeper on key 2024 Super Bowl prop markets...
National Anthem & Halftime Show Prop Odds
Beyond the game, the pregame and halftime shows draw action. What can history teach us?
Spotlight on the Anthem Time
Country icon Reba McEntire sings the 2024 anthem. Super Bowl prop bets have the legend taking around 90 seconds to sing the national anthem. However, Reba has kept previous renditions under 85 seconds.
The big stage could lead to added length. But with 80% of anthems staying under 90 seconds in data since 2003, the under feels prudent here as well.
Halftime Show Guest Star Odds
Usher headlines this year's halftime extravaganza. Who might he bring out?
- Alicia Keys: -320
- Ludacris: -210
- Lil Wayne: +550
Based on musical history, Alicia Keys and Ludacris collaborations would make natural fits. Their joint hits with Usher like "My Boo" and "Yeah!" stand good chances for the stage.
Closing Lines, Coin Flips & More Key Props
As we close in on the big game, let's check other bet-worthy areas with historical precedents.
Riding Favorites Late?
We expect sharp line moves toward the Chiefs as the more public team. However, Super Bowl favorites are just 5-8 against the spread the last 7 years when favored by less than a touchdown. Food for thought.
Coin Flip Coinage
It's basically 50/50 heads or tails on the opening flip. However, the coin toss winner has lost 8 of the last 9 Super Bowls. So maybe picking the opposite brings luck!
Halftime Adjustments
Passing plays have outpaced runs as the first play call post-halftime in 10 of the last 11 big games. With explosive offenses, the trend could continue.
Final Super Bowl Prop Closing Line Value
Shopping for the best numbers across sportsbooks stands crucial for max value. Compare real-time odds right up to kickoff across hundreds of props.
Key advantages emerge for the big game every year. Stay vigilant in your research for ideal risk/reward opportunities!
Top Super Bowl Prop Bet Values
* Anthem UNDER Reba's time
* Alicia Keys appearance with Usher
* First half play PASS post-halftime
* Coin toss: Bet opposite favorite
* Line moves toward public Chiefs
Hopefully this deep data dive on Super Bowl history provides an edge for your handicapping. Please share any big winning tickets from these or other prop plays!
What stands out to you as we approach the 2024 big game?