With the next halving anticipated in 2024, understanding the price patterns connected to past halvings can shed light on potential trajectories for Bitcoin leading into and after the supply adjustment.
Overview of Bitcoin Halving Cycles
Halving events constrict Bitcoin's inflation rate by cutting the block subsidies in half. With less supply entering circulation, halvings have historically catalyzed intensifying boom-bust bull run cycles playing out over the following 12-18 months. Despite no guarantees, price action around previous halvings provides context clues for the 2024 event.
Supply Impacts From Bitcoin Halvings
During Bitcoin's first years, 50 BTC were awarded per block. After the first halving in late 2012, this fell to 25 BTC. The second halving in mid-2016 brought it down to 12.5 BTC. The most recent halving in 2020 reduced block rewards to 6.25 BTC where they stand today.
In early 2024 rewards will drop to 3.125 BTC as the block subsidy undergoes its fourth halving. With market dynamics related to restricted new supply historically catalyzing bullish exuberance, 2024 poses high probability for Bitcoin upside.
Bitcoin’s Bull Runs Post 2012 & 2016 Halvings
Reviewing Bitcoin's price trends around the past two halvings sheds light on the massive rallies that unfolded in the months following the supply squeezes.
BTC Price at Halving: $13
Price 1 Year Later: $1,152
A single Bitcoin surged over 8,800% in the year that followed the first halving as market dynamics shifted favorably given newly constricted supply.
BTC Price at Halving: $664
Price 1 Year Later: $17,760
The second halving catalyzed a 2,580% Bitcoin price increase over the next year, firms establishing Bitcoin's recurring 4-year boom/bust patterns tied to halvings.
2024 Halving Price Predictions from Analysts
If historical market cycles tied to reduced block subsidies persist or rhyme going forward, Bitcoin looks poised for abundant upside in 2024 & beyond following fundamental shifts in monetary issuance next halving. Expert predictions include:
PlanB Stock-to-Flow Model: $135,000
Bloomberg Analysts: $400,000
With accelerating adoption intersecting constricted issuance, the stage seems set for fireworks when Bitcoin's supply shrinks again in 2024.